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Want to know what can happen to a country when its once
steady stream of gas dwindles down to a mere trickle?
Take a look at Cuba.
For decades, the country enjoyed the benefits of crude
oil tanked in from its ally, the Soviet Union. But soon
after that former Super Power’s collapse in the
early ’90s, the hydrocarbon tap flowing to Cuba
— providing gas, diesel, and other oil derivatives
— found itself all but dried up. The ensuing economic
crisis — known as the Special Period — forced
Cuba to re-imagine its energy-dependent existence, from
its modes of transportation to its industrialized agriculture.
While the current standard of living is considerably less
than before the Special Period, the country, having invested
in mass transit, organic agriculture, and other community-sustaining
activities, provides a template for a “What if…?”
scenario.
The story of Cuba and its Castro-mandated response to
the near depletion of its hydrocarbon resources is the
focus of the 2006 documentary The Power of Community:
How Cuba Survived Peak Oil. To be shown alongside 2004’s
The End of Suburbia, the documentary double-bill serves
as the cornerstone of “The End of Oil?,” an
evening of free film and discussion at Central Cinema,
March 15 at 7 p.m. Organizers hope the event leads to
debate and action on energy policy issues.
“We want it to be huge,” says Jelte Harnmeijer,
a Ph.D. candidate in astrobiology at University of Washington
and one of the evening’s organizers, of the event.
“We want people to talk, we want people to argue.”
Arguments may flare up over the heart of the evening itself:
peak oil. Put simply, peak oil refers to the moment when
the planet’s production of oil reaches its apogee.
From that moment forward, the world’s oil reserves
will shift from surplus to deficit, never to attain the
levels once known.
“So you won’t realize the peak until you get
past it,” says Joshua Strange, co-organizer and
U.W. doctoral candidate in aquatic ecology.
The notion of peak oil was first introduced in the mid-’50s
by Marion Hubbert, a Shell geologist who, against the
wishes of his employer, presented a theory that oil production,
whether in a lone oil field or across the entire globe,
follows a bell curve: a shape projecting a slow, upward
incline leading to an apex that then falls off, in a reverse
mirror of its ascent, into decline.
His theory — often referred to as Hubbert’s
peak — gained currency when he predicted that U.S.
oil production would reach its apex between 1965 and 1970.
The country’s production topped out at the latter
date.
But there’s no agreement about when the world’s
descent into the hydrocarbon abyss will arrive or how
rapidly it may occur. A report entitled “Oil Market
Report,” put out last month by the International
Energy Agency, shows the global oil supply perhaps beginning
to plateau or decline. Yet a March 5 article in The New
York Times’ business section, looking at how new
technology is resuscitating wells whose production had
flat-lined, states that “Reports of Oil’s
Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated.”
But new technologies cost money and, as oil prices straddle
the $60-a-barrel marker, costs will be passed on to people,
making disagreements about peak oil’s steep declines
or smooth plateaus, says Strange, almost moot. “What
does it mean if gasoline was $10 a gallon? Would it matter
how much oil is left?”
Through studying the theory of peak oil, Strange says
it’s easy to see that energy, in all its forms,
is the biggest source of global inequality. And while
our country’s collective lack of preparation to
confront a global peak concerns him, Strange says there’s
another factor that nags at him more: “The fact
that a world that runs on hydrocarbons — which is
oil — and is predicated on continual expansion of
economies is not sustainable.”
Along with Strange, Harnmeijer believes that there’s
a chasm separating the understanding held by the scientific
community and by the general public, of which oil production
is one. He says scientists — who, along with a representative
from Metro, an urban farm manager, and a biodiesel expert,
will be speaking at the film screenings — must work
at becoming better communicators. Peak oil will be the
first of a number of issues he and his colleagues attempt
to tackle, he says, as passing on information can help
citizens prepare for an event that may occur sooner than
some want to realize.
Says Harnmeijer, “We’re talking about the
future of our children.”
[Double bill]
“The End of Oil?” screens The End of Suburbia
at 7 p.m. and The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived
Peak Oil at 9:30 p.m. on Thurs., March 15, at Central
Cinema, 1411 21st Ave. E, (206) 686-6684. Both films are
free. A panel of invited guests will be on hand to lead
discussion.
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