Local candidates finished filing for this year’s midterm elections on May 20. Democrats across the country are gearing up for painful losses in the 2022 elections as a far-right conservative backlash threatens to restore Republican control of both houses of Congress.
Historically, midterm elections have favored the opposition party, and with the ongoing devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation rising above 8 percent, it has become easy for Republicans to pin the country’s woes on President Joe Biden and his party.
In the 2020 elections, conservative turnout was high — Democrats only managed to win by mobilizing their larger, albeit more disenfranchised, base. With the failure of Biden’s signature Build Back Better program and relative lack of substantial action on many issues, Democrats may have difficulty mobilizing potentially disillusioned younger voters, working-class people, and voters of color, who are most impacted by voter disenfranchisement efforts.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling tracker, Republicans maintain a 2.3 percent polling lead over Democrats, while president Biden’s approval rating sits at negative 13.6 points as of May 23.
Here in Washington state, two-term Congresswoman Kim Schrier (D-Sammamish) is the first Democrat on the chopping block. Having maintained a less than 4 percent margin in 2020, Schrier will be fighting hard to win reelection in the 8th Congressional District. Schrier’s saving grace may be that her main Republican opponent, King County Councilmember Reagan Dunn, is prone to controversy in the fairly affluent, relatively moderate, and majority-white district. Dunn recently made headlines for being the only council member who voted against a resolution in support of abortion rights despite previous statements against government interfering with a person’s right to choose to terminate their pregnancy.
Barring a landslide victory for Republicans, the other nine Washington congressional districts appear relatively stable, with margins of over 15 percent in either party’s favor. District boundaries were revised following the recent 2020 census, however, which could lead to results fluctuating more than usual.
In the ninth congressional district, incumbent Democrat and Armed Services Committee Chair Adam Smith is facing a spirited challenge from democratic socialist Stephanie Gallardo. Gallardo has criticized Smith for using his powerful position to advance U.S. imperialism and enrich military contractors who have donated to his campaign, such as Lockheed Martin, which donated $2,500 to Smith’s campaign.
Across state legislative races, Washington’s Democratic party is feeling a little better about its prospects. It currently holds a 57 to 41 seat majority in the state House of Representatives, meaning that Republicans would need to win eight seats to flip the chamber. Four Democrat and four Republican incumbents are at higher risk of losing reelection, with majorities of less than 5 percent. If Republicans net a 10 percent swing in vote share, they could gain six seats compared to their 2020 election results. In the state Senate, a similar wave could lead Democrats to lose three seats, cutting their majority to just one seat.
Compounding the dim national picture is a relative lack of enthusiasm in candidate filings. According to a Twitter post by communications specialist Kelsey Hamlin, almost twice as many new Republican candidates have filed for election as Democrats. Ten incumbent Republican legislators are running unopposed, compared to four Democratic incumbents.
Even if Democrats do manage to hold onto their majorities, they could find it harder to pass bold legislation. Many on the left expressed frustration that Democrats failed to pass progressive priorities in the short 2022 legislative session despite holding majorities in both chambers.
Aside from federal and state legislative races, the main local races are judicial ones, which tend to attract less attention. All three Washington Supreme Court races and five out of seven Seattle Municipal Court races are unopposed.
The most high-profile municipal race could be for the King County Prosecuting Attorney, a position that has a huge impact on the local criminal legal system (and upholding oppression within the system). Leesa Manion, a Democrat and chief of staff to retiring prosecutor Dan Satterberg, is supported by King County Executive Dow Constantine and much of the Democratic establishment. She is facing off against Jim Ferrell, who is more conservative but also calls himself a Democrat. According to PubliCola, Ferrell has criticized the prosecutor’s office for supporting diversion programs and has said the office has gone “off the rails” by straying from traditional “law and order” policies. Both candidates have worked for the prosecuting attorney’s office in the past.
Many local abortion rights advocates are angry at the Democratic party for what they perceive as a lack of action taken by party leaders as the Supreme Court threatens to roll back rights protected under Roe v. Wade. Democratic politicians’ willingness — or lack of willingness — to make serious changes on issues important to their constituents could decide whether they retain power both in Washington state and nationally.
Guy Oron is the staff reporter for Real Change. Find them on Twitter, @GuyOron.
Read more of the May 25-31, 2022 issue.